Allow me to take you on a journey. Journeys are all the rage. Tony Blair has been on one, from recognition to un-, nonetheless that rather simplifies the story that will be told in his discourse in September. Yesterday, David Cameron went on one. In a debate in Putney, he claimed that the Conservatives were right away a conflicting party: "I took it on a tour of change."
This mainstay is going on a rather shorter journey. I began it meditative that the governing body of a hung parliament, that is where roughly all the perspective polls indicate we are headed, were complicated. I was ready to cite 1924 and 1974. I wasnt going to discuss 1929, but my venerable co-worker Mr Alan Watkins, returning to the theme notwithstanding himself, fills that opening on page 47.
I was going to discuss Christopher Geidt, former Army intelligence, diplomat, UN confidant in the Balkans, who is the Queens Private Secretary. He and Gus O"Donnell, the Cabinet Secretary, would hoop the discussions in between the parties. By the time I reached the finish of the column, however, I realised that, actually, a hung council is really simple. Nick Clegg has already told us what will happen. So I went behind to the commencement and proposed again.
The key principle, that the Liberal Democrat personality has set out for at slightest a year now, was steady in an talk in The Independent 10 days ago: "If a celebration with no infancy has the strongest mandate, we accept the element that that celebration has the right to oversee possibly on the own or to reach out to others."
The usually fold is how to conclude "mandate", since that it is probable for Labour to win some-more seats whilst the Tories win some-more votes, as happened in Feb 1974. (The conflicting is infancy unlikely.) Clegg refuses to be drawn on that: "If you contend "seats" you get a title observant you are in the Labour corner. If you contend "votes" you are in the Tory corner."
In practice, however, it is seats that matter. If Labour is the largest celebration in the House of Commons, afterwards it is roughly unavoidable that Gordon Brown will stay as Prime Minister. For dual main reasons.
One is that, distinct dual years ago, the last time that Westminster was awash with hung council speculation, an vague choosing outcome would right away see similar to a small kind of dignified feat for Brown.
That confuses what competence be well known as the Jeremy Thorpe Question. In Feb 1974, when Ted Heath spoke to the Liberal personality in an try to stay on in No 10, Thorpe told him that, nonetheless it competence not be transparent who had won, it was viewable who had lost. The crook was Heath, who had left to the nation asking, "Who governs?" If there is a hung council on 7 May, on the alternative hand, and generally if Labour were the largest party, it would look, paradoxically, as if Cameron had lost.
Not usually that, but the kaleidoscope of process has been jarred by the recession. Where dual years ago Cameron the "liberal Conservative" seemed to be Nick Cleggs kind of guy, they are right away at contingency over the need for open spending cuts. Clegg attempted to show a bit of Thatcherite ankle prior to his open discussion last weekend, praising the Great She-Elephants feat over the traffic unions as "immensely significant" and observant that the open finance management should be remade by spending cuts rather than taxation rises.
But his celebration twitched ominously and he publicly recanted, reciting the hate-Thatcher mantra. Meanwhile on spending cuts he offers usually Augustinian purgation he promises mercantile virtue, but not yet. He and Vince Cable determine with Labour that spending cuts should not begin as well soon. (You competence think that last weeks find of an additional �10bn down the behind of the Office for National Statistics lounge competence shift the conditions of this debate, but it won"t.)
So, if Labour is the largest party, Brown could suggest Clegg a deal. Already, Labour offers the Lib Dems the Alternative Vote a singular electoral remodel that would give the Lib Dems significantly some-more seats. Because it will be in Labours manifesto, Brown should be means to broach his MPs. Then he could suggest Clegg a two-year concluded liberation programme, since that the parties are close on mercantile policy. Does any one disbelief that, if required to keep him in office, Brown would additionally suggest Vince Cable the post of Chancellor? Labour MPs wouldnt similar to it, but as the cost of power? The Lib Dems would be deeply suspicious, but as one Lib Dem source told me: "There is a extent to what Nick Clegg can contend No to."
Clegg has discussed with his colleagues the choice of creation Lib Dem await redeeming on Labour becoming different the leader. But Brown doesnt wish to go. Last week, he told Womans Hour that he would "keep going" if he did not have a infancy after the election. It has valid tough sufficient for Labour MPs to confirm for themselves to get absolved of Brown; creation the shift at the insistence of a opposition celebration would be even harder.
Because of Cleggs acceptance of the didactic discourse of the mandate, the mechanics of a hung council are, therefore, surprisingly simple. If Labour is the largest party, Brown will stay as Prime Minister; if the Tories have some-more MPs, Cameron will form a minority government. If YouGov is right, and the Tory share of the opinion on 6 May is five commission points some-more than Labour"s, or less, Labour will be the largest party. If the alternative polling companies are right, and the Tory lead is greater, the Tories will have a clear "mandate", totalled by both votes and seats.
Clegg has already conceded Camerons "right to govern" in that case. The import is that Lib Dem MPs would refrain on the Queens Speech and, inside of 50 days of the election, George Osbornes puncture Budget. If the Tories are the largest party, Clegg has small negotiate power; he has already sole the pass: Cameron will be budding minister.
John Rentouls blog is at: independent.co.uk/jrentoul
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